Tag Archives: 2011 NCAA Tournament

Duke vs Arizona, UConn vs San Diego St: Sweet 16 West Region Preview

3/25 Update, Postgame Reaction:

Connecticut 74, San Diego State 67
I’ll quickly review some questionable strategy before getting to the controversy. The UConn Huskies, and their star, Kemba Walker, are great in transition. San Diego State, despite what you may have heard from last night’s TV announcers, prefers to play a half court game. It has athletic, versatile big men that can, at times, electrify on the break, but that is certainly not the Aztecs’ strength.

So it was baffling why Steve Fisher’s squad tried to run with the Huskies in the first half last night. It led to a lot of careless turnovers and a 36-37 halftime deficit. A coach once told me it could be a pride thing—players wanting to show they can run with the opponent—so maybe that was a factor.

Equally questionable was UConn’s decision to slow the tempo for large stretches of the second half. That played right into the hands of San Diego State, which was able to tie the game before the second media timeout. When reserve Jamaal Franklin stole the inbounds pass and found Billy White inside to give the Aztecs a 53-49 lead, Jim Calhoun called timeout.

Commence controversy.

The basket came on the right side of the court and the San Diego State players had retreated back on defense, so most of them had to cross half court to return to their bench. Likewise, the UConn players had to cross the Aztecs’ path to return to their bench on the other side of the court.

This happens all the time in college basketball: one team (often including its bench players) celebrates while the other team dejectedly returns to its bench. This was the case at the 9:20 mark of this game, but what made it unique is that when Franklin and Walker bumped shoulders, Walker fell to the floor as if he had been tackled by a linebacker. We see this type of acting all the time when players are trying to draw a charge, but that is during actual game action.

My initial disgust was directed towards Walker, but he is certainly free to attempt a stunt like this. The blame lies with the officials who decided a technical foul should be assessed to Franklin. Some will point out that Walker didn’t even see Franklin coming, but slow-motion replays showed that was because Walker was too busy jawing with another San Diego State player.

Things did not go well for the Aztecs after this incident, as they found themselves on the wrong side of an 11-1 run to go down 60-54. Even then they had six minutes to respond, so saying the technical foul was a complete game-changer is a bit unfair. But it was certainly an unfortunate call, yet another in a March that seems to be dominated by them.

Arizona 93, Duke 77
I can’t say I saw the Duke-Arizona result coming. The fact that the Wildcats won was not a shocker—Michigan doesn’t have the talent of Arizona yet came within a basket of eliminating the Blue Devils, and exposed some of their deficiencies in the process.

Duke doesn’t quite have the supporting cast to withstand a poor performance from one of its stars—Nolan Smith shot 3-for-14—especially when it comes on the same night the opposition scored at will. Derrick Williams scored 25 of his 32 points in the first half to keep ’Zona within striking distance. In the second half, the rest of the Wildcats came alive, as Arizona went on a 19-2 run to seize control and run away with the victory.

Original Post:
On Thursday night, the Sweet 16 games get underway in the West region and Southeast region. In the West region, played in Anaheim, California, the Connecticut Huskies play the San Diego State Aztecs (7:15 EST, CBS) while the Duke Blue Devils take on the Arizona Wildcats (9:45, CBS). The winners meet for the right to go to the Final Four in Houston.

Below is a preview of the four teams (with the seed noted), outlining how each school advanced through the bracket as well as their strengths and weaknesses. There are also anecdotes from my trip to Las Vegas last weekend for the first two rounds of the Tournament.

No. 1 Duke
How they got here: By benefitting from the surprise return of Kyrie Irving, who had been sitting since Dec. 4 with a foot injury. The star freshman point guard led Duke with 14 points in a 42-point demolishing of Hampton, then scored 11, including Duke’s final field goal, to help the Blue Devils survive a pesky Michigan team 73-71.

Why you should have seen it coming: Is a Sweet 16 appearance ever surprising for Duke? Public opinion seemed to be split over whether the Blue Devils would face an athletic Tennessee team that had knocked off another No. 1 seed, Pitt, earlier in the season, or the Wolverines, whose changing defenses and complex offense can be difficult for even the more talented opponents to solve. It was the latter, and while Michigan gave the Dukies all they could handle, Coach K has a veteran team that isn’t easily rattled. And if you knew that not only would Irving return, but that he’d somehow look pretty darn good, then you probably picked Duke to reach Houston.

Why they may not go much further: The victory over Michigan wasn’t exactly convincing, as the baby Wolverines had a great look in the lane that would have sent the game to overtime. Leading by 15 with less than 11 minutes remaining, Duke couldn’t put Michigan away, struggling against the 1-3-1 zone.

The games only get tougher from here, as Duke leaves the friendly confines of North Carolina and heads west to face Derrick Williams and Arizona before a potential matchup with Kemba Walker and red-hot UConn or underrated San Diego State (remember, in California). Duke has already attempted 39 three-pointers in this Tourney, and another poor shooting performance like the one against Michigan (5-for-20 from deep) could lead to the end for the Blue Devils.

Vegas anecdote: A co-worker of mine went to Hampton, so I was prepared to take the 20+ points I was sure to get and bet against Duke in Round One. Standing in line, a fellow bettor told me he saw Hampton’s conference championship game and “they looked horrible.” Horrible enough to lose by 25? “Absolutely,” he said. That, coupled with my co-worker saying it was “unfair” that her alma mater had to play a basketball powerhouse like Duke, led me to stay away from the game, which proved to be a wise decision.

No. 5 Arizona
How they got here: On the broad shoulders of sophomore forward Derrick Williams, who made game-winning plays in each of Arizona’s first two contests. In a battle with 12 seed Memphis, Wesley Witherspoon grabbed an offensive rebound off a missed free throw and attempted a layup that would have sent the game to overtime, but Williams came out of nowhere to swat away the shot and preserve the victory.

Two days later, in what was a wild and controversial finish against 4 seed Texas, Williams drove to the hoop and completed an improbable and-one basket, making the foul shot to give the Wildcats a one-point lead with less than 10 seconds remaining. On Texas’ ensuing possession, Williams soared high to challenge the shot attempt at the buzzer to seal the victory.

Why you should have seen it coming: You’ve heard it before: Big players make big plays in big games. That’s exactly what Williams did in the opening weekend and is why he’s considered to be a top pick in the NBA draft. When a team has a superstar, you always have to assume he can carry the team for a couple of rounds.

Why they may not go much further: Arizona earned its spot in the Sweet 16, but it was certainly aided by a late-game meltdown by Texas. The Wildcats can’t expect Duke to do the same. The Blue Devils don’t have one player who can match Williams in the post, but they have enough big bodies to perhaps slow him down, and that could spell trouble for ’Zona.

Vegas anecdote: Arizona always has a lot of fans in Vegas, as many as any other school, and they were loud and proud when the Wildcats overcame a sluggish start to take the lead against Memphis. While Arizona held on for the win, it did not cover, leading to the always interesting bittersweet fan reaction: happy their team is advancing, but upset they can’t cash their tickets. Ah, the joys of sports betting.

No. 2 San Diego State
How they got here: By getting the March Madness monkey off their back, beating Northern Colorado for its first ever NCAA Tournament victory, and following it up with a double-overtime win over 7 seed Temple. The Aztecs, as they have all season, excelled on the defensive end, limiting the Bears to 33 percent shooting and Temple to 38 percent. They outrebounded the two opponents by a total of 21.

Why you should have seen it coming: The Mountain West Conference was strong this year, so the Aztecs’ 14-2 league record (with both losses coming against BYU) and conference tournament championship was impressive. Oh, and San Diego St. went undefeated out of conference, including a victory at Gonzaga. They have a potential NBA lottery pick in sophomore forward Kawhi Leonard, who leads an extremely athletic frontcourt. The Aztecs have three senior starters, including clutch-shooting point guard D.J. Gay.

Why they may not go much further: The Aztecs sometimes struggle offensively, at least when compared to other teams vying for a spot in Houston. They scored just 18 points in the second half against Temple. The starting backcourt of Gay and Chase Tapley, along with reserve James Rahon, will have to provide enough perimeter scoring to at least come close to matching what UConn and potentially Duke can do offensively.

Vegas anecdote: San Diego St. provided my most memorable Tourney game of the weekend. While my friends and I wanted the Aztecs to win—for betting purposes and as fans of the team—we also wanted them to cover the 5.5-point spread, something that didn’t seem likely as the game went into the first and then second overtime. But Leonard’s two free throws put San Diego St. up five, and his steal and breakaway dunk with 20 seconds left gave the Aztecs the magical seven-point lead. This led to rowdy rejoicing—among friends and strangers alike—in the aisle of the Hilton theater.

No. 3 Connecticut
How they got here: By showing absolutely no hangover effects from a five-wins-in-five-days Big East tournament run. UConn opened on Thursday, just five days after their improbable march in Madison Square Garden, and walloped Bucknell, taking a 17-point halftime lead en route to an 81-52 victory. They led by just three against fellow Big East member Cincinnati with less than five minutes left, but pulled away for a 69-58 win. Kemba Walker picked up right where he left off in New York. Playing all but six minutes so far, Walker has led his team in scoring in both Tourney games, shot 20-for-20 from the free throw line, and posted 17 assists against just four turnovers.

Rise and fire. Kemba (probably) drains a jumper. (Credit: Kevin Scheller/The Daily Campus)

Why you should have seen it coming: You’re familiar with this Kemba guy, right? OK, I thought so, but if you’ve been watching UConn lately you know that Walker’s young supporting cast has been playing well also. With all the big wins the Huskies scored this season—five victories over teams given 4 seeds or better—an appearance in the Sweet 16 is no surprise.

Why they may not go much further: This team has to run out of gas at some point…maybe. Even if fatigue doesn’t set in, inexperience might. UConn starts three freshmen and a sophomore, and has two other underclassmen play prominent roles off the bench. No one is playing better than Connecticut right now, but I still think San Diego State is a better team, as is Duke, should the regional finals be a rematch of the 1999 title game.

Vegas anecdote: Unfortunately for me, the UConn-Cincinnati game was the last game on Saturday and I didn’t have much rooting interest since I had chosen Missouri in my bracket. But that’s what Vegas is for, so I bet on UConn for the second half and sweated it out as they covered the line.

Michigan Basketball Preview 2010

Expectations. In the case of the Michigan basketball programs they are extremely telling. Both head coaches—John Beilein (men) and Kevin Borseth (women)—are in their fourth season in Ann Arbor. The women are expected to be in the mix in a competitive Big Ten and the team’s goal is to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2001. The men are projected to finish in the conference’s basement and an NIT bid would be a surprise.

How did we get here?

Both hires were lauded back in April 2007. Beilein had made a habit of turning around programs. While covering college basketball the last few years, I’ve heard nothing but great things about Beilein from coaches, fellow writers, and other basketball insiders. Borseth, meanwhile, brought a level of intensity and seriousness that the program had been lacking. He’d done nothing but win, building Michigan Tech and Wisconsin-Green Bay into the dominant teams in their respective conferences. Here’s a closer look at the numbers:

John Beilein          Kevin Borseth
Pre-Michigan*              456-269 (.629)             441-159 (.735)
2007-08              10-22              19-14 (NIT)
2008-08              21-14 (NCAA)              10-20
2009-10              15-17              21-14 (NIT)
Michigans Previous 
Three Years
2004-05              13-18               5-23
2005-06              22-11 (NIT)               6-23
2006-07              22-13 (NIT)

*Includes Division I and II schools only. For Beilein this includes Le Moyne, Canisius, Richmond, and West Virginia (his most recent stops before Michigan). For Borseth it includes Michigan Tech and Wisconsin-Green Bay (also his most recent pre-Michigan jobs).

My point is not to try and determine who is a better coach. Keep in mind that five of Beilein’s seasons were in what is often the toughest conference in men’s basketball, the Big East, while he was at West Virginia.

But some of these numbers are telling, including the fact that the men’s program posted consecutive 22-win seasons prior to Beilein’s arrival. Tommy Amaker certainly underachieved and his dismissal was warranted, but it’s not like Beilein was stepping into a mess. Borseth, on the other hand, was inheriting a program that had fallen into irrelevance. In his first season at Michigan, the Wolverines finished above .500 and qualified for a postseason tournament for the first time in six years.

Beilein has admitted that this season is a rebuilding year. Borseth and his players are basically saying it’s the Big Dance or bust.

Some believe Beilein has gotten a bit of a free pass since Rich Rodriguez and the football team are under so much scrutiny. That could be true, but nothing changes the fact that after Beilein took a big step forward in his second season, the Wolverines seriously underachieved last year and things don’t look too promising this season.

Borseth’s bunch bounced back from a disappointing 2007-08 to reach the semifinals of the NIT last year. The key will be how well the Wolverines fare in the rigorous Big Ten. They twice came within one possession of beating Ohio State last year and also dropped a close game to Michigan State—the teams that finished 1-2 in the league last year and are expected to battle for the top spot again this season.

This year, close losses won’t be good enough. The Michigan women have to win some of those games if they want to finish above .500 in conference for the first time since 2001.

Of course, expectations are often proven wrong. It’s unlikely too many thought Borseth could get the Wolverines to the postseason in his first year; just as many thought they’d build off the momentum the following year. The men exceeded expectations in Beilein’s second year and then disappointed the next.

Currently, the women are 2-2 and the men are 3-0. Both teams have several challenging non-conference games in the next month—including this weekend, when the women will play Texas A&M in Cancun and the men take on Syracuse in Atlantic City—before Big Ten play begins. Here’s hoping the women living up to the expectations and the men exceeding them.

NCAA Tournament Expansion: 68 Is Better Than 96

Maybe this was the NCAA’s plan all along: to suggest that a 96-team Tournament field was not only an option, but a strong possibility. To answer questions about this potential new format, laying out exactly how it would work and why it would be an improvement over the current model.

Then, tell us they are in fact expanding the Dance, but only to 68 — a mere three additional teams.

The reaction to Thursday’s news that the field was going to 68, not 96, was overwhelmingly positive. OK, that’s an understatement. People were ecstatic. Have sports fans ever been so happy to hear that something was not happening?

I’m confident that had 96 never been mentioned, the reaction to an expansion, even a minor one, would not have been this positive. Instead, everyone was too busy rejoicing that it wasn’t going to 96 to get angry about the dissolution of the “pure” bracket. Maybe the NCAA realized this would happen, and used it as a way to sneak expansion past us.

Of course it’s also possible that the NCAA actually considered all of the public outcry. Because, much like the reaction to Thursday’s news, the response to the NCAA’s April 1 press conference at the Final Four was equally one-sided. Other than the NCAA higher-ups and some misinformed coaches, the 96-team bracket was a universally hated idea.

But perhaps the NCAA laid out the blueprint for 96 to the media so they could gauge the reaction, and then came to the conclusion that it was a bad idea.

I’m not sure how plausible either of these scenarios are. They might seem outrageous to you, but we’re talking about the NCAA here, so I don’t think either can be ruled out. Besides, the only other option might seem ridiculous, too: the NCAA was telling the truth all along.

After all, at no point in the press conference did NCAA senior vice president Greg Shaheen or anyone else representing the NCAA say that 96 was a done deal. In fact, they said the opposite: that a 96-team field was just one of three scenarios they were considering and that a decision had not yet been made. I read the entire transcript of that press conference, though, and it seems like they spent way too much time breaking down the details and answering questions about it if they weren’t close to implementing it.

So while I want to blame much of the media for overreacting and jumping to conclusions, had I been present at that press conference, I probably would have felt the same way.

Let’s also keep in mind that the NCAA told us on Thursday that the Division I Men’s Basketball Committee simply “recommended” a 68-team field to the Board of Directors, which will make the final decision on April 29. And while I don’t want to be fooled twice, all indications are that this is just a formality and, at least for 2011, the field will be 68.

How exactly the NCAA got to that number, however, might remain a mystery forever.

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