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NCAA Basketball

NCAA Tournament 2011: Final Four Preview

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(Credit: NCAA)

The 2011 Final Four in Houston will be a memorable one. We know this before the games are even played because of the teams involved: Kentucky, which will play Connecticut, and Butler, which faces Virginia Commonwealth. In a year when you should be proud of yourself for correctly predicting one Final Four team and should get your own college hoops radio show if you got two, let’s take a look at some of the facts, figures, and other tidbits relating to the 2011 Final Four.

  • As far as seeds, this is the highest cumulative number in a Final Four (11 + 8 + 4 + 3 = 26), breaking the previous high of 22 in 2000.
  • Two of the teams were unranked in the preseason polls: UConn and VCU. Kentucky, ranked 10/11 in the preseason, remained in the polls all season while Butler (preseason 17/18) fell out after two weeks and never returned. UConn entered the polls in Week 4 and never left. According to TheresAStatForThat.blogspot.com, this is only the fifth time since 1989 (when the polls expanded to 25 teams) that a Final Four matchup features teams unranked at any point during the season (and, as noted, in this case neither was ranked for all but two weeks of the season).
  • This is the first time there is no 1 or 2 seed in the Final Four. Three 1 or 2 seeds played in regional finals (Kansas, North Carolina, and Florida), but all lost to lower seeds.
  • This is the first time since the Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 that two teams outside of the BCS conferences are in the Final Four (and first time since 1979, when Indiana State and Penn both made it).
  • Butler coach Brad Stevens is 34. VCU coach Shaka Smart is 33. Those two ages combined do not reach 68, the age of UConn coach Jim Calhoun. It could be the lowest combined age of coaches in a Final Four matchup, but I’m not certain of that.
  • Two of the teams—UConn and VCU—were not in the Tournament last year. The two that were, however, did quite well. Kentucky lost in the Elite 8 and Butler, as I’m sure you remember, was the national runner-up.
  • There are probably not a ton of future NBA players in this year’s group, especially on the right side of the bracket, which is unusual. According to The Wall Street Journal, 94 of the 96 teams that reached the Final Four between 1985 and 2008 had at least one player who eventually appeared in an NBA game. In fact, 91 percent of the teams over that span had at least two such players and the majority of teams had at least four. Kentucky and UConn are both young teams but appear to fit the mold, while Butler and VCU certainly do not. Both teams have just two players each on ESPN’s draft tracker, and all four of those players are listed as “second round to undrafted.” Neither NBADraft.net nor DraftExpress.com have any Butler or VCU players getting selected in their 2011 mock drafts.
  • Only VCU did not win its conference tournament, as the Rams lost in the CAA finals, but given their extra NCAA Tourney game, they are on a five-game win streak. UConn had its historic run in the Big East tournament, winning five games in five days, so the Huskies enter Houston on a nine-game win streak. Kentucky’s streak is at 10, while Butler’s is at an impressive 13.

Kentucky Wildcats

  • John Calipari is taking his third team to the Final Four (UMass and Memphis were the others), joining Rick Pitino (Providence, Kentucky, Louisville) as the only coach ever to do that. Calipari’s previous two appearances were eventually vacated.
  • Kentucky has already gone one step further than it did last season despite losing five players (four freshmen and a junior) in last year’s NBA Draft.
  • Young teams have more room for improvement, and Kentucky has certainly improved as the season has progressed. Evidence of this is UK’s win over North Carolina in the regional final, as the Cats had lost to UNC earlier in the season. Kentucky will get a chance to prove this again on Saturday—they also lost to UConn, 84-67, back in November.
  • Darius Miller was a starter last season and DeAndre Liggins played 15 minutes a game, but the other four players in Kentucky’s rotation have little big-game experience. Three are freshmen and the other is Josh Harrellson, a senior who averaged just four minutes per game last season and played a total of six in last year’s Tourney.
  • Speaking of Harrellson, where did this guy come from? He has upped his season averages in all major categories, tallying 14.7 points and 9 rebounds a game in the Tournament. Most impressive was his ability to guard Ohio State All-America center Jared Sullinger one-on-one, which allowed the rest of the Kentucky defenders to stay home on OSU’s deadly three-point shooters. I realize last year’s squad was loaded with talent—including two frontcourt players that were lottery picks—but I find it hard to believe that Harrellson couldn’t have contributed. Then again, I have not coached three different schools to the Final Four.

Connecticut Huskies

  • This is UConn’s fourth appearance in the Final Four (all under Jim Calhoun) and all four times the Huskies have emerged from the West Region.
  • UConn is now 12-0 in tournament games this season, having won three to claim the Maui Invitational title, five to win the Big East tournament, and four so far in the Big Dance.
  • UConn has not lost an out of conference game this season (15-0).
  • Of the names that have surfaced over the course of the season for Player of the Year—Kemba Walker, Jimmer Fredette, Jared Sullginer, Nolan Smith—only Walker is still playing. (That being said, Jimmer is still going to win the award.)
  • Walker is the unquestioned leader of this very young UConn squad. According to KenPom.com’s experience rating, which takes into account minutes played, the Huskies rank 332 out of 345 teams, second lowest among BCS schools.
  • I questioned whether UConn’s season had peaked in Madison Square Garden for the conference tournament and if the Huskies had anything in the tank for the Big Dance. Boy was that silly.

Butler Bulldogs

  • When Gordon Hayward declared for the NBA Draft, the national sentiment was, “That’s too bad, this team could’ve made a serious run next year, too.” Instead, following somewhat of a similar script to last year—ranked in preseason, written off in regular season, improbable run to Final Four—the Bulldogs have wowed the nation again.
  • It’s been said a lot already, including multiple times by my roommate Ryan, who picked Butler to reach Houston, but here it is again: This year’s Butler is…Butler!
  • Brad Stevens is the youngest coach to reach two Final Fours. His calm sideline demeanor has been a big reason why. In Underdawgs, a book by Indianapolis Star columnist David Woods about Butler’s memorable run last season, I learned that Stevens often settles his team in late-game huddles by telling them, “We’re going to win this game.” Consecutive Final Fours seem wildly improbable to outsiders, but to those within the Butler program it was expected. To expect and to achieve are two very different things, but it’s hard to do the latter without believing you can.
  • Butler has the most big game experience of any of the Final Four teams and it’s not even close.
  • Here is my thoroughly detailed, heavily researched analysis of Butler’s offense: Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard can get you 20 points each, and the others chip in here and there and somehow at the end of the game they have more points than the other team.

Virginia Commonwealth Rams

  • VCU is the first team to win five games to reach the Final Four. From the First Four to the Final Four—truly remarkable.
  • As an 11 seed, VCU has tied the mark for the highest seed to reach the Final Four. LSU in 1986 and George Mason (more on them later) in 2006 are the others.
  • VCU has been the most dominant team in the Tournament. I repeat: VCU has been the most dominant team in the Tournament. The Rams have won their five Tourney games by margins of 13, 18, 18, 1 (overtime), and 10, an average margin of 15. They’ve been putting teams away early, too, holding a double-digit halftime lead in three of those games. These would be impressive performances by a 1 seed, and is absolutely mind-blowing for an 11 seed.
  • I don’t think this is as big a deal as others are making it out to be, but VCU has defeated teams from the Pac-10, Big East, Big Ten, ACC, and Big 12 en route to the Final Four. It will now face a team from the Horizon with a chance to play an SEC school in the finals.
  • Shaka Smart, in just his second season as a head coach after serving as an assistant at Florida, Clemson, and Akron, seems to be a great tournament coach. You know what he’s done this season, but last year VCU won the College Basketball Invitational (CBI).
  • Wait, VCU was in the CBI last year? Yes, and it’s yet another fact that underscores how improbable this run really is. People made a big deal of UNC’s turnaround—the Heels were one game away from the Final Four after not qualifying for the Tourney last year—but they went to the finals of the NIT. What Smart has done in year two is incredible.
  • This explains why most of the Rams did not bother to watch the Selection Show.
  • The obvious comparison is to George Mason, a fellow Colonial team that got a questionable at-large bid and marched to the Final Four as an 11 seed. A key difference, if I recall correctly, is that Mason was viewed as a dangerous team entering the Dance. The invitation still came as a surprise after the early exit from the CAA tournament, but many felt George Mason had a team capable of pulling off an upset or two. The same can’t be said of VCU, which was viewed as undeserving and not all that good.
  • I was not in favor of expanding the field and VCU’s run does not change my opinion. However, the Rams’ Tournament run has been unbelievably exciting and had the field not expanded, they almost certainly would not have received a bid, so it’s not all bad.
  • There is a very fine line between making the Final Four and getting bounced earlier in the Tournament. Kentucky needed a basket with two seconds left to beat Princeton by two in its opening game. It got another basket in the final seconds to beat Ohio State in the Sweet 16. UConn led by just one with less than two minutes left against San Diego State and survived two three-point attempts in the closing seconds that would have given Arizona a win in the regional final. Butler has been on a wild ride, beating Old Dominion at the buzzer, Pittsburgh by one, and Florida by three in overtime. VCU, of course, was one of the last teams invited to the Tournament.

Related Articles:

UConn’s path to Final Four
Kentucky’s path to Final Four
Butler’s path to Final Four

NCAA Basketball

Ohio State vs Kentucky, UNC vs Marquette: Sweet 16 East Region Preview

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On Friday night, the Sweet 16 games continue in the Southwest region and East region. In the latter, played in Newark, New Jersey, the North Carolina Tar Heels play the Marquette Golden Eagles (7:15 EST, CBS) while the Ohio State Buckeys take on the Kentucky Wildcats (9:45, CBS). The winners meet for the right to go to the Final Four in Houston, where they’ll face the winner of the West region.

Below is a preview of the four teams (with the seed noted), outlining how each school advanced through the bracket as well as their strengths and weaknesses. There are also anecdotes from my trip to Las Vegas last weekend for the first two rounds of the Tournament.

No. 1 Ohio State
How they got here: By being the dominant team that people thought didn’t exist this season. Seriously, did those claiming there was no truly great team not watch the Buckeyes? Ohio State dismantled 16 seed UT-San Antonio by 29 points, then went and beat George Mason (an 8 seed) by even more, winning 98-66.

The victory over the Patriots in the second round (what CBS and the NCAA will try to fool you into believing is the third round) was beyond impressive. Ohio State shot 61 percent from the field and from deep, hitting 16-of-26 three-pointers. George Mason might have done better playing no defense at all, as the Buckeyes made just 55 percent (10-of-18) of their free throws.

In their two Tourney games, David Lighty has hit nine three-pointers, Jon Diebler eight, and William Buford seven. This long-range barrage is happening with the nation’s best big man, Jared Sullinger, manning the paint, and is why Ohio State is an offensive juggernaut capable of cutting down the nets in Houston.

Why you should have seen it coming: The success is nothing new. Ohio State entered the Tournament with a 32-2 record and ranked No. 1 in the country. The Buckeyes were placed in what many considered to be the toughest region, but one seeds rarely exit before the second weekend.

David Lighty was on the OSU team that went to the finals in 2007. (Credit: Ohio State Athletics)

Why they may not go much further: The above praise was warranted, but Kentucky is the type of team that could give Ohio State a run. The Wildcats excel in the half court and can push the tempo when they choose; basically, they can score a lot of points, and that’s what it will take to upset Ohio State. Potential regional final opponent North Carolina can do the same. In the Buckeyes’ two losses this season, an opposing guard just went off. Kentucky and UNC both have potential future lottery picks that might be able to assume that role.

Vegas anecdote: Ohio State opened as an 11.5-point favorite against George Mason, and I thought the underdog could give the Buckeyes a serious challenge. When I got to the betting window, the line had dropped a half point, to 11. I bet on George Mason anyway. If only the line had swung 21 points the other way, I would have won.

Bonus Vegas anecdote: Sitting at the Paris sportsbook watching the Buckeyes systemically destroy George Mason, a gentleman next to me started talking about how dominant they were. He mentioned forward Dallas Lauderdale, the least heralded Buckeye starter. Lauderdale, a senior bruiser, is often replaced by Aaron Craft, the team’s only true point guard, by the first media timeout. “That guy would start for any other team in the country,” the man said, referring to Lauderdale. Yes, even Ohio State!

No. 4 Kentucky
How they got here: On the strength John Calipari’s seemingly endless line of great freshman point guards. Brandon Knight was scoreless against 13 seed Princeton for nearly 40 minutes, having missed all seven of his shots, but his driving layup with two seconds remaining gave Kentucky a 59-57 victory in a game that was close throughout. Two days later, against the team that eliminated the Wildcats in last year’s regional final, West Virginia, Knight was brilliant throughout, scoring a career-high 30 points in a 71-63 win. Josh Harrellson, Kentucky’s lone senior, has scored 15 in each game, double his season average.

Why you should have seen it coming: The Wildcats came in hot, winning six in a row, including a decisive victory in the SEC championship game over Florida. Kentucky’s top three scorers are freshmen, and freshmen are typically going to improve more over the course of a season than upperclassmen. In other words, the Cats were only going to get better, and John Calipari is no stranger to Tournament success. (Note: The previous eight words have been stricken from the record by the NCAA.)

Why they may not go much further: Midway through the second half of the SEC title game many were probably considering Kentucky as a sleeper Final Four team. That likely changed once the brackets came out later that evening. Ohio State is the No. 1 overall seed for a reason, and the young Wildcats will need a tremendous effort to beat the Bucks.

Vegas anecdote: My friend Danny, who I referenced in my 2010 March Madness diary, liked Princeton and the 13 points they were getting as his lock of the first round. I bet on Kentucky. This is why I bet a lot less money than Danny does.

No. 2 North Carolina
How they got here: By dominating the paint in a 102-87 shootout against 15 seed Long Island and making enough plays down the stretch to hold off 7 seed Washington 86-83 in round two. In game one, Carolina got 84 points out of its three starting frontcourt players and dominated the boards (52-36). But the game wasn’t a blowout because the Heels made just 3-of-17 three-pointers and committed 18 turnovers. They played a more complete game against the Huskies in what turned out to be a wild ending.

Why you should have seen it coming: Since freshman Kendall Marshall became the starting point guard in mid-January, the Heels were 15-2 entering the Big Dance, with the only losses coming to Duke. The team basically had to be reevaluated after mediocre start, and all signs indicated this team had the firepower to reach Houston. With three starters that could be first round NBA draft picks this year and size that few teams can match, it would have been very surprising if this squad didn’t reach the second weekend.

Harrison Barnes of UNC is one of many standout freshmen in this region. (Credit: Niirvash)

Why they may not go much further: Carolina is expected to beat Marquette, but a regional final matchup with Ohio State would be a tall task. If Kentucky can upset the Buckeyes, however, Carolina would get to play a team it beat already this season.

Vegas anecdote: I was on the betting line ready to take Long Island (local team, sort of) in the first half against UNC, but because one of the bettors in front of me was apparently placing wagers on the NBA, golf, and NASCAR in addition to the Tournament, the game started before I could make my bet. I can’t remember exactly how many points LIU was getting—it was 9 or 10—but I know I was mad because for most of the first half it seemed like the bet was going to be a winner. But in the final few minutes, the Tar Heels pulled away to take an 11-point halftime lead, which meant I would’ve lost my bet. Later that night, I saw the guy who held me up on line (he was in the hot dog line, likely delaying that, too) but decided not to thank him for inadvertently saving me a few bucks.

No. 11 Marquette
How they got here: By pulling off two upsets, first against Xavier and then against Big East foe Syracuse, a three seed. The Golden Eagles never trailed against Xavier, but their second-round game was much different. The margin was one possession for most of the second half, but Darius Johnson-Odom’s three with 27 seconds left broke a tie and propelled Marquette to a 66-62 victory. Johnson-Odoms scored 19 and 17 in the first two Tourney games.

Why you should have seen it coming: This is a tough sell. Marquette was the 11 seed in the Big East Tournament, where it won a couple of games, and, off the strength of its overall resume, received an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament (where it also received an 11 seed). But if you thought the Big East was a really, really strong conference—as many did, at least before last weekend—then Marquette’s .500 record (plus the two league tourney wins) and wins over Syracuse, West Virginia (twice), and UConn probably impressed you.

Why they may not go much further: If you thought the Big East was overrated all season—or you turned on the conference after last weekend—you might be thinking Marquette got a favorable draw by facing Xavier and then another Big East team, Syracuse, and now it’s time for them to bow out of the Dance. But it’s not about conferences, it’s about teams, and the remaining teams in the East region are all better than Marquette. I like coach Buzz Williams, but if North Carolina has been preparing itself in the last few days, its edge in talent will be tough to overcome.

Vegas anecdote: When it became clear that Marquette was going to beat Xavier, the conference bashing began. “The A-10 sucks,” one disgruntled bettor said. “This is the best team in the league?” another asked. It happens every year, albeit with different teams/conferences. Xavier breezed through the Atlantic 10, finishing in first with a 15-1 record. They did get bounced by Dayton in the opening round of the conference tourney, however.

Meanwhile, Temple won a game before falling to a 2 seed in double overtime, and Richmond is still alive, making the A-10’s showing in this year’s Dance very respectable. It’s silly when people point to one team’s failures as proof that the entire conference is weak. And given that it’s only one weekend’s worth of games, it’s silly to do it even if a larger group of teams struggle.

NCAA Basketball

Wisconsin vs Butler, Florida vs BYU: Sweet 16 Southeast Region Preview

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3/25 Update, Postgame Reaction:

Butler 61, Wisconsin 54
When I first got off the escalator at McCarran airport and entered the luggage claim/ground transportation level, I saw a limo driver with a sign that read “Hayward.” No, Brad Stevens was not the driver, and Gordon Hayward certainly was not walking through that door at New Orleans Arena.

Butler didn’t need him. When you hold your opponent to 27 points through essentially three quarters, you can get by with just two superstars instead of three. And make no mistake about it, Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard are superstars—hard to find a better inside-out scoring duo.

In my preview I wrote that Butler and Wisconsin were similar, but that the Badgers were more efficient in their execution. That sure wasn’t the case last night. I’d like to look into this more in the near future, but Wisconsin’s epically bad shooting performances are almost unfathomable. Last night was very similar to their 36-33 loss to Penn State in the Big Ten tournament. Butler lost its focus in the final few minutes, perhaps thinking the outcome was a given at that point (it was), otherwise Wisconsin’s final output would have been even worse.

Some of the late-game breakdowns aside, can you say anything bad about Stevens and the Bulldogs? This was at least the ninth straight Tourney game in which they seemed so prepared, so poised, and so fun to watch if you’re a basketball purist. They were underdogs against Old Dominion, underdogs against Pittsburgh, and underdogs against Wisconsin. They’ll be underdogs against Florida, too. If the Bulldogs manage to win and you’re surprised, you haven’t been watching them the last couple of years.

On Thursday night, the Sweet 16 games get underway in the West region and Southeast region. In the latter, played in New Orleans, the BYU Cougars play the Florida Gators (7:27 EST, TBS) while the Wisconsin Badgers take on the Butler Bulldogs (9:57, TBS). The winners meet for the right to go to the Final Four in Houston.

Below is a preview of the four teams (with the seed noted), outlining how each school advanced through the bracket as well as their strengths and weaknesses. There are also anecdotes from my trip to Las Vegas last weekend for the first two rounds of the Tournament.

No. 4 Wisconsin
How they got here: By being the incredibly efficient team they’ve been all season, aiming for substance over style on nearly every possession. Wisconsin’s first opponent, 13 seed Belmont, was a popular upset pick. The Bruins had won 30 games and played a frenetic style that couldn’t be more different from Wisconsin’s. Something had to give, and it was Belmont, which fell to the Badgers 72-58. The Bruins couldn’t get out in transition, and while the Badgers milked the shot clock on nearly every possession, they still shot 50 percent from the floor and 12-of-22 from deep.

Jordan Taylor was badly outplayed by Kansas State’s Jacob Pullen in Round Two, but Wisconsin turned it over just five times and hung on for a 70-65 win. Wisconsin’s other star, Jon Leuer, has scored 22 and 19 points thus far.

Why you should have seen it coming: Wisconsin had two ugly, ugly losses entering the Tournament, but it showed its potential to be an elite team when it beat No. 1 Ohio State in mid-February. Casual fans label Bo Ryan’s style of play as B-O-R-I-N-G, but scoring on a higher percentage of possessions than most every team in the country is what makes Wisconsin so good. This is an easy team to overlook, but not an easy one to overmatch, as two very good teams found out last weekend.

Bo Ryan pretty much always looks like this. (Credit: Lukas Keapproth)

Why they may not go much further: Remember those ugly, ugly losses I mentioned? Yeah, they were ugly. Hard to criticize a team for losing to Ohio State, but a 28-point loss usually doesn’t show up on the resume of an elite team. The Badgers followed that up with a memorable (for all the wrong reasons) performance against Penn State in the Big Ten tournament, losing 36-33. Wisconsin shot 2-of-21 from three in that game. Butler won’t be discouraged by Wisconsin’s slow pace, and Florida or BYU could simply outscore them.

Vegas anecdote: The Wisconsin fans sitting in the row behind us were very friendly. They put up with our criticisms of their star player (Taylor was 2-for-16 from the field while his point guard counterpart scored 38 points!) and even seemed entertained by our fickle support. This wasn’t much of an anecdote, but you had teams from Wisconsin and Kansas, so what did you expect?

No. 8 Butler
How they got here: By adhering to The Butler Way, which lately means winning extremely close games, often in improbable fashion, to put yourself two wins away from a second straight Final Four.

Given an 8 seed, the likelihood of surviving the first weekend seemed dismal, especially since opening round opponent Old Dominion was projected as another very dangerous team. But Matt Howard’s put-back at the buzzer lifted the Bulldogs to a 60-58 win over ODU, and in one of the strangest finishes you’ll ever see in a basketball game, Butler defeated top-seeded Pittsburgh 71-70. Shelvin Mack dropped 30 points in the game, a Butler Tournament record, hitting 7-of-12 three-pointers.

Why you should have seen it coming: Do you believe in Butler magic? I’ll admit, just before this year’s Tournament started I read Underdawgs, a book on Butler’s inspiring run to last year’s NCAA title game, and I still didn’t think the Bulldogs could knock off Pitt. Without Gordon Hayward, last season’s leading scorer and rebounder, it seemed this team just didn’t have enough firepower.

In early February, after a three-game losing streak in the Horizon and with no signature nonconference wins (though the win over Florida State looks pretty good now), Butler was 14-9 and in danger of missing the Tournament. That’s when the Bulldogs rattled off nine straight victories, entering the Dance as one of the hottest teams in the country.

Why they may not go much further: It’s silly to bet against the magic at this point, but Wisconsin is a team that will do a lot of the things Butler does, except better. The Badgers have big men that aren’t simply space eaters in the paint—they won’t be afraid to venture outside the lane with Howard. This one could go either way, as could Butler’s next game against BYU or Florida. Including these two Tourney wins, the Bulldogs have won six straight as an underdog, so either their magical roll will continue or their luck will finally run out.

Vegas anecdote: It seemed like I was the only person in the theater who backed Butler in the first round, which really shocked me. I understood Old Dominion was a very good team, but when Vegas made the Monarchs a two-point favorite I didn’t see the value. In Butler’s second game, I think everyone was too confused by the final seconds to worry about their particular bet.

No. 2 Florida
How they got here: By getting two huge games from 5’8” Erving Walker, the guard from Brooklyn with a knack for hitting big shots. Walker led Florida with 18 points, including four-of-six from deep, in an opening round rout. The Gators didn’t really need him against a woefully overmatched UC-Santa Barbara squad, winning 79-51. They sure relied on him against 7 seed UCLA though. He scored Florida’s last seven points—a three-pointer with 1:15 left to push the lead to four and four free throws to seal the deal. He finished with 21.

Why you should have seen it coming: The Gators were on the national radar in February, when they went on a six-game winning streak in the SEC, a run that included victories over four teams destined for the Big Dance. A blowout loss to Kentucky in the conference tournament final didn’t prevent Florida from getting a 2 seed, making it a safe bet to reach the Sweet 16.

Why they may not go much further: Are you going to bet against Jimmer? BYU is next up for the Gators and it certainly doesn’t help that Florida’s best perimeter defender, Kenny Boynton, sprained his ankle against UCLA, though he is expected to play. Keep in mind that it was BYU that eliminated Florida from last year’s Tournament (in double overtime). Wisconsin and Butler are experienced teams that would likely play Florida close to the final minute should the Gators advance.

Vegas anecdote: I was playing Pai Gow while watching the Florida-UCLA game, and the dealer continuously berated me for not playing the bonus. Whenever my hand failed to make three-of-a-kind or better, which was more often than not, she said nothing, but any time I made a good hand she would tap her finger inside the bonus betting circle and say, “Should’ve played bonus.” I’d like to thank Billy Donovan’s team for putting me in a good mood. Had Florida lost, I may not have been so patient with the critical dealer.

No. 3 BYU
How they got here: Jimmer. Jimmer. Jimmer. Jimmer. I could really write this for every section. It would be lazy, but accurate. Fredette (this is the last time I’ll use his last name, I promise) dropped 32 on Wofford (a 13 seed) and 34 on Gonzaga (an 11 seed). He wasn’t too efficient in the opener, an eight-point win, but converted 7-of-12 from downtown against the Zags in an 89-67 blowout.

Why you should have seen it coming: Coming off one of the biggest wins in program history against San Diego State, BYU lost Brandon Davies and then lost to New Mexico by 18. The Cougars regrouped, winning three in a row (including a win over New Mexico) and reaching the Mountain West tournament final. This didn’t quell all doubts, but it proved BYU was still a capable team. And when you have the nation’s leading scorer, you’re a threat to make a Tourney run.

It seems like Jimmer has just as easy a time doing this from 25 feet. (Credit: Lelavr)

Why they may not go much further: I really liked this team, so I was saddened by Davies’ suspension because I felt it ended BYU’s chances of a serious Tourney run. This team had a very legitimate shot at a Final Four, but without their lone inside presence I figured they could struggle to get through the opening weekend. The Cougs have done that, but you’ve got to assume Florida has learned from last year’s Tourney matchup, when Jimmer scored 37. There are teams in the MWC that play BYU multiple times a year and still have no clue how to slow Jimmer, but the Gators are a complete team that should be able to control the paint. Butler and Wisconsin have quality big men as well. No matter how it turns out for BYU, it will be fun to watch.

Vegas anecdote: BYU was an 8.5-point favorite in its opener against Wofford. The Cougars were up 11 with the ball and could just about run out the clock on the Terriers. BYU fans/bettors voiced their support, but then, for some reason, Jimmer hoisted a 30 footer, which missed everything. You could feel the tension rise in the theater as Wofford guard Cameron Rundles drove baseline but passed on a layup, opting to kick it out to teammate Terry Martin instead. Bettors screamed “Noooo!” as Martin released a three-pointer as time expired, and sure enough, buried it to make the margin eight and give Wofford the cover.