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MAAC basketball

MAAC Basketball: Midseason Questions

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MAAC basketball starts up again on Thursday night with four games on the slate. The marquee match-up has to be Siena at St. Peter’s; I’ll be covering the Iona-Marist game. As I noted yesterday, the Saints and Gaels are two teams I’ll be discussing as I answer some questions heading into the second half of conference play…

Will Siena go undefeated in conference play?
The Saints certainly have the talent to do so. They’ll be favored in every MAAC game this season, and rightfully so. But math tells us that even if a team has a 90% chance of winning each game, that team is still unlikely to run the table in an 18-game schedule (or even in an eight-game schedule).

Siena still has the aforementioned road game at St. Peter’s, as well as trips to Niagara, and Rider, two games that resulted in Siena’s only two conference losses last season. The Saints also have tough home contests against top-tier MAAC teams Iona and Fairfield. If the Saints have a weakness, it’s their lack of depth. I think a weak bench will sting them in a high-energy late-season game.

The Verdict: Siena will be upset at least once (and probably only once) in the regular season.

Can Iona and Fairfield stay hot?
Let’s start with the Stags. As I wrote in yesterday’s article, Fairfield is overachieving without Greg Nero. Freshman point guard Derek Needham is playing better than most expected, leading his team in points, assists, steals, and minutes played. If the freshman can hold up for the second half of the season, the Stags can remain near the top of the MAAC standings.

However, Fairfield’s schedule is no walk in the park. Having already played last-place Marist twice, the Stags still have to travel to Siena, Rider, and Loyola, as well as host St. Peter’s, Iona, and Niagara. None of those games will be easy. Relying so heavily on a freshman point guard is usually not a formula for late-season success, so I can see Fairfield’s season going either way.

Iona doesn’t rely on a freshman point guard, but Kevin Willard’s starting lineup often consists of three or four underclassmen. There are 10 Gaels averaging at least 11.5 minutes per game — six of them are freshmen or sophomores. Unlike other MAAC teams though, Iona has no player averaging more than 29 minutes a game (four of Siena’s starters are averaging 30 mpg).

The deep bench has allowed Willard to play an up-tempo, full-court press style of attack that has often worn down opponents this year. Offensively, it’s been a “different guy every night” type of season. I know Willard would prefer to be scoring in the 80’s, which Iona hasn’t done since Dec. 23rd, but he’ll take the wins any way they come.

And I think those wins will continue to come for this young squad. Look at Iona’s next six games: Marist, Canisius, at Siena, at Marist, Manhattan, Loyola. The Gaels will be favored in five of those games and I expect them to win all except Siena.

The Verdicts: Fairfield holds serve at home, but loses three of four on the road, which would put them at 12-6 in conference, a mark that should leave them no worse than third place. Iona, as I just mentioned, should win five of their next six. If they do that, even if they do lose their three road games (Siena, Fairfield, and St. Peter’s), they’ll be 12-6 just like Fairfield. Both of these teams are the real deal.

Which team, if any, will rise up?
Sorry, Marist. Loyola? Not this year. Manhattan, despite its proven ability to hang with anyone, has dug itself too deep a hole.

My team to watch in the second half is Rider. At only 4-6 in the MAAC and 11-11 overall, the Broncs certainly qualify. Remember, this is the team picked to finish third in the preseason poll. The schedule sets up favorably for a strong finish: of their final eight games, six of them are at home, including a Feb. 26th nationally-televised match-up with Siena.

Given that Rider has the preseason player of the year, senior Ryan Thompson, it can’t be counted out just yet. Are the Broncs going to win the regular season title? Of course not. But don’t be surprised if they get hot down the stretch and carry a bunch of momentum into the conference tournament.

The Verdict: Rider finishes strong, winning six of eight to put them at 10-8 in the conference. Come tournament time, watch out.

I welcome your thoughts and predictions in the comments section!

MAAC basketball

MAAC Basketball Midseason Report

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February is almost here, we’re past the halfway point in the conference season, and there have been enough games played for us to get a good look at all 10 MAAC teams. So it’s time for some midseason awards. Which team has been the biggest surprise? Who is the front-runner for player of the year? Which teams are heading towards the postseason? Here are my thoughts on the key story lines so far this season…

The Surprises

Siena’s non-conference slip-ups
The Saints are sitting pretty at 10-0 in the MAAC. They have looked fairly dominant this season and are certainly the favorites to repeat as conference champions. But should they fall in the conference tournament, they’re in big trouble.

Siena dropped the ball in the non-conference, losing to Temple, St. John’s, Georgia Tech, and Northern Iowa. The Saints did beat Northeastern, who sits atop the CAA. But the resume lacks that “signature win” the selection committee likes to see.

Iona’s impressive start

In just the third year under head coach Kevin Willard, the Gaels are in second place in the MAAC with a 7-3 record. They’ve won six straight and have become “road warriors,” winning seven of nine true road games this season, the biggest of which was a victory at Providence. “We played 18 road games last year,” Willard said after a win at Manhattan last week. “They understand what it takes to win on the road. You’ve got to play defense.”

After some early season inconsistency, Willard has Iona playing its best basketball of late. The Gaels have won six in a row and are 15-6 overall. In case you’re not impressed with all of this, consider: Iona was picked ninth in the conference preseason coaches’ poll.

Fairfield’s similar (and nearly as impressive) start
Hats off to Fairfield head coach Ed Cooley, also in his third year. Like Iona, the Stags are 7-3 in conference. However, they did lose to the Gaels on Sunday. Even so, they are 14-6 overall, an impressive feat considering the injury bug that continues to bite this team.

After learning that star player Greg Nero’s season was over before it began after, of all things, off-season sinus surgery, it meant that Fairfield would be without four of its top five scorers from last season. The answer? Freshman point guard Derek Needham, sixth in the MAAC in scoring (averaging 15.7 points in MAAC games) and third in assists, who’s running away with the freshman of the year award.

The Stags were picked fourth in the preseason poll but that was before the coaches knew that Nero would be out. Fairfield lacks a big-time conference win but still has a few opportunities to get one.

The Awards

Best Game: This was a tough one, but I’m going with the Jan. 16th contest between Canisius and Manhattan. Canisius won an overtime thriller on the road, 63-61, on a Julius Coles three with five seconds left. Manhattan’s shot as time expired hit the rim. Honorable mention goes to yesterday’s Rider-Niagara game, won by the Broncs on a tip in with five ticks left.

Best Individual Performance: Nick Leon vs. Niagara. The junior guard hit 11-of-12 free throws en route to 29 points, tied for the most in a MAAC game this season. The difference between Leon’s effort and Rico Pickett’s 29 against Fairfield was that Leon’s came in a win, a 90-86 overtime victory for the Purple Eagles.

Tough Luck Team: Manhattan — no doubt about it. The Jaspers are 2-8 in the MAAC, but consider: four of their losses were by three points or fewer. One more basket (or one more stop) in just a handful of games and Barry Rohrssen’s club could be at .500. “We’ve been fighting; we’ve been scrapping,” Rohrssen said after a three-point loss to Iona last week. “We are right there. And we’ve got to make some plays to put things away in our favor.”

All-MAAC Team: I went for some balance as far as positions and teams. Also keep in mind that because of Iona’s schedule so far I haven’t seen all these players in person yet. But here we go: Edwin Ubiles (f, Siena), Anthony Johnson (f, Fairfield), Ryan Rossiter (f, Siena), Frank Turner (g, Canisius), Tyrone Lews (g, Niagara). I’d give the player of the year to Ubiles, as he is the most talented player I’ve seen thus far.
Honorable Mention: A lot of guys are worthy, but I’ll mention some, such as Wesley Jenkins (St. Peter’s), Alex Franklin (Siena), Rico Pickett (Manhattan), Ronald Moore (Siena), Derek Needham (Fairfield), Bilal Benn (Niagara), and the underrated Scott Machado (Iona).

What does the second half of the MAAC season have in store? Will Siena run the table in conference? Will overachieving Iona remain near the top of the standings? Is one of the bottom-half teams capable of making a late-season run? Find out the answers to these questions tomorrow in my MAAC edition of “Who’s Real, Who’s Fake?”

MAAC basketball

MAAC Basketball Preview

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Conference play in the MAAC began tonight with Marist visiting Fairfield. There are three more games tomorrow night. So I thought it would be worthwhile to review what the MAAC has done so far this young season. I’ll go in reverse order of preseason conference ranking which, along with the three preseason All-Conference teams, was voted on by the coaches.

Marist (10)
The Red Foxes are 0-4. Their average margin of defeat is 17.5 points. They’re probably not going to be all that competitive this year.

Iona (9)
The Gaels (4-2) have been a pleasant surprise, beating Boston University in their opener and playing three competitive games in the Old Spice Classic in Orlando, losing by five to Florida State, falling in overtime to Baylor, and beating Creighton. Iona has reached the 80-point mark twice this season, and their deep bench allows them to employ the up-tempo, full-court press attack that coach Kevin Willard prefers. They may be a year away from being a serious competitor in the MAAC, but I think the Gaels have proven they are a dangerous team right now.

Manhattan (8)
The Jaspers are 4-2 but have no quality wins. We’ll know a lot more about Manhattan the next time they return home, which isn’t until Jan. 4 — Friday starts a tough stretch of seven straight road games (which includes four conference games and a trip to Vanderbilt.)

Canisius (7)
Much like Manhattan, Canisius has a winning record (3-2) but hasn’t beaten anyone of note. They open conference play tomorrow at home against Loyola. The Golden Griffins have three players averaging at least 14 points per game.

Loyola (t5)
It’s become a theme: Loyola is 4-2 but doesn’t have any impressive wins. Preseason second-teamer Jamal Barney is averaging 12.3 points and 4.3 rebounds a game for the Greyounds.

Saint Peter’s (t5)
St. Pete’s is the team that played the 6 a.m. game as part of ESPN’s 24 hours of college hoops. They won that game, shaking off a season-opening loss at the buzzer to Seton Hall. Since, they’ve had a couple of bad losses and now sit at 2-3. Second-teamer Wesley Jenkins leads the Peacocks in scoring with 14.4 per game.

Fairfield (4)
Unfortunately for the Stags, they’re probably not going to be as good as their preseason ranking suggests. Much like last year, injuries have taken a toll on Fairfield. Second-team preseason selection Greg Nero, who missed a lot of time last year due to back spasms, has not played yet this season and might miss the entire season after having offseason sinus surgery. Without Nero, the Stags are far less dangerous. They’re 4-2 but lost their only two real tests (against Maryland and Hofstra).

Rider (3)
The Broncs (5-3) got a huge win to start the season, winning at then-No. 19 Mississippi State. They have cooled off a bit since, suffering 30+ point losses at Virginia and Kentucky and then losing to Sam Houston State. They are coming off a win against St. Joe’s, though. Rider has three players on the three preseason teams, including preseason Player of the Year Ryan Thompson, and is considered to be one of the two teams with a chance to dethrone Siena.

Niagara (2)
The Purple Eagles (4-3) lost by four at Auburn to open the season and have been somewhat quiet since. But they certainly have the talent to win the MAAC, and with four straight conference home games to start MAAC play, it’s fair to assume they’ll likely be at the top of the conference standings when they visit Siena Jan. 9.

Siena (1)
The Saints have been a disappointment so far, losing to Temple, St. John’s, and Georgia Tech, essentially eliminating themselves from getting an at-large bid should they fail to repeat as MAAC Tournament champs. First-team selection Edwin Ubiles has been hampered by a knee injury, but Siena has plenty of talent to pick up the slack.